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New research: Local food and fuel prices more than triple in some of the world’s most at risk communities

Halwo Ibrahim Mohamed, a farmer, from Ceel-Hume, Somaliland

The cost of food, fuel and fertiliser in some of the world’s poorest communities is soaring, with families spending double, triple and in some cases nearly four times what they were paying before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, new analysis by ActionAid finds.  

While the average cost of wheat products like pasta has increased by more than 50% in local markets and communities in the 13 countries surveyed, families in Lebanon, which is heavily dependent on imports from Ukraine and Russia, are spending as much as 275% more than they were at the end of February.  

In the Horn of Africa, where 20 million people are already facing severe hunger due to prolonged drought, communities in Somaliland are now spending more than double (163%) as much on a loaf of bread. Average prices for cooking oil have increased by over 60%, but in some areas of Somaliland costs are up by as much as 260%.  

Dead livestock found inside/outside the community of Ceel-Dheere
Daniel Jukes/ActionAid

It comes as the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) is today due to release its latest global food price index, which last month found world food commodity prices reached their highest ever levels

ActionAid’s analysis finds that, at local community level, food and fuel price hikes are far outstripping already record-breaking rises globally*, suggesting the Ukraine war has exacerbated ongoing food and fuel price challenges in communities most impacted by the climate crisis, humanitarian emergencies, and political and economic turmoil. The survey of market traders and community members in 13 countries across Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, finds that the cost of essentials have increased by: 

  • Fertiliser up by an average of 83% (rising by up to 196% in the Elfeta area of Ethiopia)  
  • Cooking oil up by an average of 64% (rising by up to 260% in the villages of Googeysa and Xidhinta in Somaliland)  
  • Petrol up by an average of 63% (rising by up to 253% in Myanmar)  
  • Cooking gas up by an average of 60% (rising by up to 175% in one area of Zimbabwe)  
  • Pasta up by an average of 53% (rising by up to 275% in the Baalbek area of Bekaa district, Lebanon)  
  • Bread up by an average of 48% (rising by up to 163% in villages of Ceel-Giniseed and Teysa, Somaliland)  

Teresa Anderson, ActionAid International’s global climate justice lead, says:  

“The conflict in Ukraine has created a perfect storm of skyrocketing prices for food, fuel and fertiliser, disproportionately affecting local communities who barely have any belt left to tighten. 

Our survey found that in some places, prices are now double, triple or almost four times as much compared to before the war started. 

The world is now on track for a global food crisis that looks set to be far more deadly, devastating and prolonged than that of 2007-08. Governments and international institutions must take urgent action to avert catastrophic hunger on an unprecedented scale.” 

Just over two months on from the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, families in existing hunger hotspots around the world are already feeling the burden of skyrocketing prices.  

Mothers reported having to take their children out of school to be able to afford to buy food and shared their heartache at only being able to provide one meal a day for their families. In Somaliland, one woman spoke of giving her children black tea to stave off hunger pangs.  

Other people said they have become sick from drinking unclean water from ponds, and many families are incurring debt to cover essential expenses such as medical costs, seeds and fertiliser.  

As well as the soaring cost of wheat products and cooking oil, the cost of fuel and fertilisers is also rising at an alarming rate.  

ActionAid’s survey shows the cost of petrol and cooking gas has gone up by around 60% on average. However, one community in Myanmar reports that the cost of petrol has soared by 253%, and families in Zimbabwe report petrol increases as high as 227% and cooking gas increases up by 175%. 

Chemical fertilisers, a key component of industrialised farming systems, require large amounts of fossil fuels for their production. The survey shows that the average price of fertiliser has already increased by more than 80%. However, in one district of Ethiopia prices have gone up by as much as 196%. With the planting season about to begin or already underway in many parts of the world, crop yields and farming incomes are set to be hit hard in 2022.

Joy Mabenge, Country Director of ActionAid Zimbabwe, says:

“The price increases since the start of the Ukraine war are further eroding living standards and are severely affecting the poorest and most marginalised.” 

Many of the countries where the survey was carried out rely heavily on imported goods, making them hugely susceptible to changes in global markets.  

In Somaliland, Maryan Muhumed Hudhun, a smallholder farmer and mother of six, told ActionAid:

“We don't produce anything in Somaliland. Whatever food we consume here is made outside, such as rice, pasta or oil.  

“Whatever impacts the world will impact us as well. I am worried about not being able to get water, or food even.” 

Sifa, a 40-year-old mother of seven from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, said: 

“My family and I no longer [get enough food]. We have had to reduce the quantity and quality of our meals. The low production [of food] has pushed us to become beggars.” 

Maryan Muhumed Hudhun, age 48, Ceel-Giniseed Community, Somaliland
Daniel Jukes/ActionAid

ActionAid is calling for the immediate roll out of social protection measures, which target women and girls, including cash transfers, food support and free school meals, to assist families most at risk. 

To avert dramatic global yield losses later this year from a worldwide lack of fertilisers, governments must rapidly train farmers on agroecological approaches. Agroecology means adopting farming practices that work with nature, such as using local manure to build soil fertility and reduce reliance on chemical fertilisers.

In the longer term, governments dependent on food imports must also invest in national and regional food reserves to act as buffers and reduce countries’ vulnerability to food shortages and price rises. The global fallout from the Ukraine crisis shows why a just transition to renewable energy and agroecological farming practices is more urgent than ever, to address climate change and protect communities from shocks to world food and energy markets.  

Ceel-Dheere Community

Horn of Africa Humanitarian Crisis Appeal

ActionAid’s emergency teams are working with local partners to provide live-saving food relief and water. But more support is urgently needed.

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For more information and interviews contact Samantha Bandak, Media Manager, on samantha.bandak@actionaid.org or +44 (0) 7771 762447 

Notes to editors:  

ActionAid has spokespeople available for interview about the impact of the rise in food and fuel prices, particularly on how it has affected women and girls. 

Media b-roll and stills of people affected by drought and soaring food and fuel prices in Somaliland, can be found here

*The FAO Food Price Index averaged 159.3 points in March, up 12.6% from February. The latest level was 33.6% higher than in March 2021. It is due to be updated today (6 May). 

The price of Brent Crude oil is expected to average $100 per barrel this year, a 42% increase from 2021 and the highest annual level since 2013.  

Methodology: 

ActionAid programme staff carried out the survey in 41 local markets and communities in 13 countries between 4-23 April. They asked 657 market traders and community members how much wheat products, cooking oil, petrol, gas for cooking and fertiliser cost before 24 February (when Russia invaded Ukraine) and how much those items cost on the day of the survey.   

A consultant working with ActionAid then calculated the percentage change. The results can be found here. The countries which took part in the survey were: 

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo 
  • Ethiopia 
  • Haiti 
  • Kenya 
  • Lebanon 
  • Malawi 
  • Mozambique 
  • Myanmar 
  • Nigeria 
  • Palestine 
  • Somaliland 
  • Zambia 
  • Zimbabwe